WTF Happened in the Utah and Arizona Primaries, Explained
Everyone — except John Kasich — was a winner on what the networks dubbed “Western Tuesday” (but which we like to think of as “Super Tuesday: With a Vengeance”), the third of five super-ish Tuesdays on the primary calendar.
Donald Trump‘s anti-immigrant rhetoric carried him to victory in Arizona, but worked against him in Utah, where Ted Cruz won in a landslide. A similar split surfaced on on the Democratic side: Hillary Clinton easily locked up the Grand Canyon State, but was thoroughly routed by Bernie Sanders in Utah and Idaho.
In the end, Tuesday night was a suspenseful but largely predictable retread of the same dynamics we saw in both Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday-er: the Never Trump and Feel the Bern camps notched key wins, but those victories weren’t big enough to change the math nor the momentum favoring the frontrunners.
Here’s what you need to know.
THE REPUBLICANS
Arizonans really bought into the wall stuff, huh?
Yes. The Republican contest in Arizona was the first race of the night to be called, and it went in favor of Trump. That result was widely expected; this is, after all, the state that gave us the loathed anti-immigrant bill SB 1070 (championed by former governor Jan Brewer, who endorsed Trump). Its most populous county, Maricopa, is still presided over by Sheriff Joe Arpaio, architect of a policy the Justice Department characterized as the worst racial profiling it has seen in its history. (Arpaio also endorsed Trump.) No exit polls were conducted to confirm this, but it’s pretty safe to say Trump’s “I’m gonna build a wall!” bluster played very well among the state’s Republicans. He won 47 percent of the vote, putting away all 58 of the state’s delegates.
How come Trump lost so badly in Utah, then?
Despite their proximity to Arizona, Utahans were not similarly charmed by the xenophobia that’s been a hallmark of Trump’s campaign. As several observers have noted, that’s mainly because Mormons, who make up a large share of the state’s Republican base, are diametrically opposed to his two main policy proposals: building a wall to keep out Mexicans, and banning Muslims from entering the country. For one thing, the governor of Utah noted, the state has always welcomed religious exiles, even when it had to do so in defiance of a xenophobic president. That might be the reason why, according to a study by the Public Religion Research Institute, Mormons are much more likely than the average Republican to believe immigrants “strengthen American society.” The Church of Latter Day Saints itself has supported “compassionate” immigration reform; it’s also come out strongly against Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States. In a statement, the church invoked its founder, Joseph Smith, saying he would die defending the rights of any religious faith that was “unpopular and too weak to defend themselves.” And, of course, there’s the fact that the most prominent Mormon in the country, Mitt Romney, also happens to be the most outspoken anti-Trump crusader.