WTF Happened at the Iowa Caucuses, Explained
Following Monday night’s Democratic caucus, Hillary Clinton has claimed victory over Bernie Sanders, and the Iowa Democratic Party says she barely eked out a win, after a race so close some precincts needed to be decided by a coin flip. Sanders called the outcome a “virtual tie.”
On the Republican side, Ted Cruz — buoyed by evangelical voters and a strong ground game — scored a convincing win, turning the GOP’s billionaire frontrunner into Miss Colombia for the evening. There will be no coronation for Donald Trump. Instead, a strong showing by Marco Rubio — who tied Trump’s delegate haul, despite trailing him by more than 2,000 votes — has the potential to turn the Republican contest into a three-horse race.
Here’s what you need to know.
DEMOCRATS
What is this “virtual tie” stuff? Tell me who really won in the Democratic race.
Prepare to get frustrated: There’s no way to know which Democrat won Iowa as a matter of raw votes.
Iowa Democrats don’t practice direct democracy. Under the convoluted rules of the party’s caucus system, nobody keeps a grand vote tally. Instead, the contest is fought, precinct by precinct, over each precinct’s share of county-convention delegates. In several precincts there were ties or disputed counts, leaving “orphaned” delegates to be apportioned by a coin flip. No joke. Clinton reportedly won six such coin flips.
Adding to the complexity: The county delegate count then gets re-calculated as the “state delegate equivalent” tally published by most news outlets. As of early Tuesday morning, Clinton led that count 700 to 695, a difference of just 0.4 percent.
Measured by delegates to the national Democratic convention — the most important outcome — Clinton appeared to edge Sanders 23-21.
So who won, politically?
The outcome is good for Clinton — but not fatal for Sanders. The Sanders campaign strategy had been to win the first two contests, puncture Clinton’s air of inevitability, and build, delegate by delegate, to the convention. The split decision demonstrates that Sanders’ “political revolution” has real power — but hasn’t yet built enough muscle to topple the Clinton juggernaut.
For Clinton, this result takes disaster — a repeat of her painful loss to Barack Obama in 2008 — off the table. Equally important, it leaves Clinton prepared to absorb a blow in New Hampshire, where Sanders is the heavy favorite, before turning to South Carolina, where Clinton hopes to begin building her “Big Mo.”
Who showed up?
The Democratic candidates drew two competing electorates Monday night.
The age splits were striking — with the line of demarcation in the party being age 45. Those younger swung heavily for Sanders; those older favored Clinton by a wide margin. At the extremes, the numbers are almost shocking: Sanders won 84 percent of caucus-goers under 30. Clinton won 69 percent of caucus-goers over 65.
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